Weekly Market Sparks – Week of September 8, 2025

Rusty Vanneman

— 3 min read

Talking Points for The Week That Was and The Week Ahead

Executive Summary Sparks

  • Last Week: August brought just 22,000 new jobs—well below the 77,000 expected and down from July’s revised 79,000. June was revised even lower, showing a loss of 13,000 jobs, the first monthly decline since late 2020. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, its highest level since 2021.
  • The Week Ahead: Eyes turn to inflation with PPI (Wednesday) and CPI (Thursday), along with Consumer Sentiment (Friday). These reports will shape the Fed’s next steps.
  • Market Wisdom: With stocks still near record highs and credit spreads also still pricing in perfection, now is the time to double-check diversification—not chase the sexy headlines.

Sparks from the Week That Was

  • Market Performance:
    • Nasdaq +1.1%, lifted by Apple and Alphabet after a lighter-than-feared antitrust ruling.
    • S&P 500 +0.3%, while the Dow slipped –0.3%.
    • Small-caps gained, reflecting sensitivity to interest rate expectations.
  • Economic Data:
    • Nonfarm Payrolls: just +22k vs. expectations of +75–80k. June revised down to –13k, the first monthly decline since Dec. 2020. Unemployment rose to 4.3%, a four-year high.
    • Wage growth slowed to +3.69% Y/Y, the lowest since mid-2024 but still above pre-COVID averages.
    • Productivity revised up to +3.3% in Q2, a bright spot.
  • Labor Market Softening: JOLTS openings fell to 7.18 million, the lowest since 2024. ADP payrolls added just 54k jobs. Challenger job cuts rose. For the first time since 2021, unemployed Americans outnumber job openings.
  • Rates & Bonds: Treasury yields dropped sharply as markets priced in an 88% chance of a 25bps cut at the September meeting. The 10-year yield fell to its lowest since April; the curve steepened, helping lenders.
  • Sectors & Styles: Tech remains dominant, but enthusiasm is concentrated in mega-cap names. Nvidia (NVDA) remains the poster child of AI optimism, with massive capex by hyperscalers fueling comparisons to the dot-com telecom buildout.

Sparks for the Week Ahead

  • Economic Data: CPI and PPI will provide the last major inputs before the Fed meets Sept. 17. Consensus expects headline CPI to rise to 2.9% Y/Y, while core holds at 3.1%.
  • Fed Policy: Market odds imply near-certainty of a cut. Watch for Fed speakers to signal whether the door is open to 50bps.
  • Markets & Sectors: Expect continued volatility around AI names and megacaps. Seasonal September headwinds remain in play.

Sparks of Market Wisdom

Nvidia has been a remarkable story, but investor expectations around AI are increasingly echoing past booms. As Peter Berezin noted, telecoms in the 1990s spent heavily on capex only to see free cash flow dry up. Robert Armstrong quantified today’s AI buildout as already on par with the dot-com and housing booms—each topping 6% of GDP. History reminds us that innovation is real, but valuations can overshoot. That said, comparing the returns of ChatGPT to the dot.com era's Netscape, the AI boom/bubble could last a while longer.

That’s why this is a time to stay invested, but not concentrated. Diversification is more important than ever when markets price in perfection. Discipline and balance—not chasing what’s hot—are what get investors through the inevitable surprises ahead.

Quote of the Week

“A good financial advisor is more like George Bailey than George Soros.” Rusty Vanneman

What I mean is this: the role of an advisor isn’t to make speculative bets or chase headlines. It’s about being a steady hand — like George Bailey in It’s a Wonderful Life — building trust, looking out for people, and helping clients navigate life’s ups and downs with confidence.

That said, strong advisors also bring professional skill and market knowledge to the table. The best ones combine Bailey’s heart with the financial acumen to guide clients wisely through both good times and bad.

In short, financial advice at its best is less about bold speculation and more about stewardship, discipline, and care.

Invest Well, Be Well.

Listen to my new podcast: Invest Well, Be Well

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