Weekly Market Sparks | September 15, 2025

Rusty Vanneman

— 2 min read

Talking Points for The Week That Was and The Week Ahead

Executive Summary Sparks

  • Last Week: Markets pushed to new highs as earnings momentum continued, with forward S&P 500 earnings per share now near record levels. Inflation data sent mixed signals—CPI a touch hotter, but PPI surprisingly soft.
  • The Week Ahead: All eyes turn to the Fed meeting midweek, with markets pricing in a likely rate cut despite inflation still above target. Retail sales, industrial production, and housing data will provide more insight into the health of consumers and the economy.
  • Market Wisdom: Strong earnings remind us of Warren Buffett’s lesson: extraordinary results come from steady discipline, not extraordinary bets.

Sparks from the Week That Was

  • Market Performance: U.S. equities gained ground again, with the S&P 500 supported by rising forward earnings estimates and record-high margins near 14%. The index remains near all-time highs, fueled by resilient profit growth despite tariffs and labor pressures.
  • Sector Sparks: Technology and communication services led once again, buoyed by strong earnings outlooks. Housing-related sectors saw a lift from lower rates.
  • Economic Data:
    • CPI: Headline +0.38% M/M and Core +0.35% M/M, reflecting tariff impacts on goods prices.
    • PPI: Declined -0.12% M/M, a surprise cooling driven by margin compression, suggesting firms are absorbing costs for now.
    • Jobs: Jobless claims climbed to their highest in nearly four years, underscoring a softer labor market.
  • Bond & Credit Markets: Yields drifted lower in anticipation of Fed easing. The 10-year Treasury touched 4.0%, while mortgage rates declined to their lowest in nearly a year, sparking a modest rebound in applications and refinancing.

Sparks for the Week Ahead

  • Economic Data: Watch for retail sales and industrial production (Tuesday) to test consumer and business momentum. Housing starts and building permits (Wednesday) will offer more clarity on whether falling mortgage rates are thawing the housing market.
  • Fed & Policy: The FOMC meeting (Wednesday) is the main event. A 25 bps cut looks likely, though hotter CPI complicates the narrative. Investors should prepare for the possibility of a dovish message paired with cautious inflation language.
  • Markets & Earnings: Corporate earnings remain the fuel for this bull market. Analysts continue to revise forecasts higher, pushing expected 2026 EPS above $300 for the S&P 500.

Sparks of Market Wisdom

Markets are balancing mixed signals—slowing labor, stubborn inflation, and Fed intervention—but the earnings trend remains the clearest driver. In times like these, the discipline of staying invested, diversified, and disciplined pays off. Chasing narratives or reacting to every data print risks missing the broader truth: long-term returns are earned by staying the course, not by guessing the Fed’s next move.

Quote of the Week

“What we do is not beyond anybody else’s competence. I feel the same way about managing that I do about investing: It’s just not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.” — Warren Buffett

Invest Well, Be Well.
Blog | rustysbridge.com
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