Weekly Market Sparks: October 13, 2025

Rusty Vanneman

— 3 min read

Talking Points for The Week That Was and The Week Ahead

Executive Summary Sparks

  • Last Week: Markets stumbled into mid-October as the S&P 500 fell 2.7%, with its worst day since April, amid renewed trade tensions, a government shutdown entering its second week, and surging gold prices topping $4,000 per ounce for the first time ever.
  • The Week Ahead: With CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales data scheduled (pending shutdown delays), all eyes turn to corporate earnings starting with JPMorgan Chase where results could set the tone for Q4 sentiment.
  • Market Wisdom: October tends to test investors’ patience. Volatility is normal, but long-term discipline often rewards those who stay the course.

Sparks from the Week That Was

Market Performance:
Equities retreated sharply after weeks of strength. The S&P 500 dropped 2.7% on Friday and 3.1% for the week, trimming its 12-month total return to roughly +19%. Tech stocks led early gains boosted by AMD’s new partnership with OpenAI, but profit-taking hit hard by week’s end. The Nasdaq tumbled 3.6%, small caps slid 2%, and volatility spiked for the first time in nearly two months.

Economic Data:
With many reports delayed by the government shutdown, the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed inflation forecasts ticking up across 1-, 3-, and 5-year horizons. Price expectations rose for food, rent, and medical care but offset slightly by declining home price and earnings expectations. The Manheim Used Car Index slipped modestly in September, now nearly 20% below its 2022 peak but still +2% year-over-year.

Sentiment & Confidence:
Consumer confidence held steady but cautious. The preliminary University of Michigan survey showed sentiment at 55, unchanged from September. While current personal finances improved, longer-term expectations for buying durable goods softened, consistent with a “wait and see” environment.

Bond & Credit Markets:
U.S. Treasuries rallied as investors sought safety amid trade and shutdown uncertainty. The 10-year Treasury yield fell back below 4.1%, its lowest in nearly two months. Municipal bonds held firm despite a busy issuance calendar, while investment-grade corporates lagged on light volumes. High yield spreads widened modestly as risk appetite cooled.

Sector & Style Sparks:
Technology continued to dominate headlines thanks to the AMD–OpenAI deal, while Energy lagged amid softening oil and commodity prices. Financials traded cautiously ahead of bank earnings, and small-cap stocks, which had recently outperformed, lost momentum. Gold’s 50% surge year-to-date underscored investors’ growing focus on safe havens.

Other Noteworthy Sparks:
The U.S. government shutdown, now the fourth-longest on record, shows few signs of resolution. Trade tensions reignited after new tariff threats between the U.S. and China, sending ripple effects through global markets. Despite the noise, corporate earnings and Fed expectations remain key market drivers heading into year-end.

Sparks for the Week Ahead

Economic Data:
Headline and Core CPI (Wednesday), PPI (Thursday), and Retail Sales (Thursday) will dominate the calendar if released on time. These inflation readings will heavily influence expectations for the next Fed meeting (October 28–29).

Fed & Policy:
Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting showed growing support for rate cuts this year, but officials remain cautious given lingering inflation risks. With limited new data during the shutdown, the Fed may lean more on forward guidance and financial conditions to shape its next steps.

Markets & Earnings:
Q3 earnings season begins with major banks such as JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo reporting. Corporate commentary on lending trends, credit quality, and consumer behavior will be watched closely for signs of slowing growth or resilience heading into 2026.

Sparks of Market Wisdom

Despite headlines about shutdowns, tariffs, and volatility, investors should remember that short-term turbulence is a feature and not a flaw of the markets. October’s reputation for sharp swings often masks its historical role as a launch pad for strong year-end rallies.

The lesson remains timeless:

  • Stay Invested: Avoid emotional reactions to volatility.
  • Stay Diversified: Don’t let one theme—AI, gold, or otherwise—dominate portfolios.
  • Stay Disciplined: Let long-term goals, not short-term noise, guide your decisions.

Quote of the Week:

“The four most expensive words in the English language are ‘this time is different.’”
— Sir John Templeton

Invest Well, Be Well.
Rusty Vanneman | rustysbridge.com
Listen to my podcast: Invest Well, Be Well

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