Weekly Market Sparks | November 30, 2025

Rusty Vanneman

— 2 min read

Talking Points for The Week That Was and The Week Ahead

Executive Summary Sparks

  • Last Week: Markets shook off a quiet Thanksgiving week and delivered a strong finish. The S&P 500 gained nearly 4%, the Nasdaq rose ~4%, and small caps surged almost 6%—their strongest 4-day stretch in months.
  • The Week Ahead: Key data returns in full force: Economic Optimism (Tues), Import/Export Prices and Service PMIs (Weds), Job Cuts (Thurs), and the all-important Core PCE (Fri).
  • Market Wisdom: When headlines hesitate but markets advance, disciplined investors lean on process over prediction. This is where staying invested, staying diversified, and staying disciplined pays off.

Sparks From the Week That Was

Market Performance

The market staged a broad post-holiday rally. For the week, the S&P 500 returned +3.7%, the Dow gained +3%, and the Nasdaq rose more than +4%. Small caps stole the show with a +5.5% jump, benefiting from rising expectations of a December Fed rate cut.

Over the past 12 months, the S&P 500 has delivered a strong double-digit total return as earnings, productivity, and improving financial conditions continue to support prices.

Economic Data

Fresh data finally returned after the shutdown delay:

  • Producer Prices: Headline PPI was basically unchanged at +2.7% Y/Y, while Core PPI slowed to +2.6%, the lowest since April 2024—an encouraging sign for coming CPI releases.
  • Retail Sales: Muted at +0.2% M/M, but still marking the fourth straight monthly gain and up +4.3% Y/Y.
  • Durable Goods: Up +0.5% M/M, beating expectations, with Core Capital Goods signaling ongoing business investment.
  • GDP: Q2 revised from 3.0% to 3.8%, and Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow has Q3 tracking at 3.9%—robust numbers suggesting productivity gains remain healthy.

Sentiment & Confidence

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dipped to 88.7, the lowest since April, as expectations around income and labor conditions softened. While sentiment is cautious, spending trends remain steady.

Bond & Credit Markets

The 10-year Treasury ended near 4.0%, easing from earlier highs. Lower yields helped fuel the week’s equity rally. Credit spreads widened slightly but risk appetite remained intact, supporting both IG and high-yield markets.

Sector/Style Sparks

Tech rebounded late in the week, but the bigger story was cyclical leadership and small-cap strength—a sign investors are starting to position for easier monetary policy in 2026.

Sparks for the Week Ahead

  • Economic Data: Watch Core PCE, income, and spending (Fri); PMIs (Weds); and job-cut announcements (Thurs).
  • Fed & Policy: Markets now price an 80–85% chance of a December rate cut—the third in a row. The Fed’s commentary will guide volatility.
  • Markets & Earnings: With December historically strong and benchmarks near record levels, expect continued sector rotation and opportunities for disciplined rebalancing.

Sparks of Market Wisdom

  • Even when confidence surveys soften, the market often looks forward, not backward.
  • Diversification proved its value last week: large caps, small caps, cyclicals, and international markets all participated.
  • Discipline still wins—follow the plan, rebalance with purpose, and let long-term strategy outweigh short-term emotion.

Quote of the Week

“I made my money by selling too soon.” — Bernard Baruch (via Tim Ferriss)

Invest Well, Be Well.

Rusty Vanneman | rustysbridge.com
Listen to my podcast: Invest Well, Be Well

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