Weekly Market Sparks | November 24, 2025

Talking Points for The Week That Was and The Week Ahead


Executive Summary Sparks

  • Last Week: Risk-off rotation took hold as the S&P 500 declined, dragged lower by a sharp post-earnings reversal in NVIDIA (despite a better than expected earnings report). Defensive sectors outperformed while high beta markets such as Semiconductors and Bitcoin saw meaningful pullbacks.
  • The Week Ahead: It’s a holiday-shortened week, but Tuesday’s PPI and consumer confidence numbers could still nudge markets. Thin trading and month-end positioning may amplify moves.
  • Market Wisdom: After long, calm rallies, even normal volatility feels uncomfortable, but staying invested, staying diversified, and staying disciplined remains the playbook.

Sparks from the Week That Was

Market Performance

U.S. equities finished broadly lower. The S&P 500 fell for the week and now sits about 4% below its late-October all-time high. Over the last 12 months, the S&P 500 is still solidly positive on a total-return basis. Large-cap tech led the decline, while mid-caps and value held up relatively better. A sharp rebound on Friday helped trim losses after dovish comments from the New York Fed.

Economic Data

Six weeks late, September payrolls finally landed: +119,000 jobs versus expectations for +50,000, which was the best month since April. But unemployment ticked up to 4.4%, the highest since 2021. We will not get an October employment report, making November’s release the final labor snapshot before the Fed’s December meeting.

Sentiment & Confidence

Investors grappled with confusion over December rate-cut odds, which swung from 30% to nearly 70% by week’s end. Consumer confidence and business surveys reflect a cautious, wait-and-see mood as markets digest mixed macro signals.

Bond & Credit Markets

Treasury yields eased, with the 10-year finishing near 4.1%, a welcome tailwind for fixed-income investors. Investment-grade bonds generated positive returns, while high-yield softened alongside broader risk assets. Credit spreads widened slightly but remain far from stress levels.

Other Noteworthy Sparks

The American Farm Bureau reported that the cost of Thanksgiving dinner is down 5% from last year. That is some good news heading into the holiday week. Still, prices remain 13% above 2019 levels, even as wages have risen 29% over that same period.

Sparks for the Week Ahead

  • Economic Data: Key releases include PPI, consumer confidence (Tuesday), and Durable Goods Orders (Wednesday).
  • Fed & Policy: With limited fresh data before the December meeting, markets will hang on every Fed comment, especially around growth, inflation, and rate-cut timing.
  • Markets & Earnings: Low volume could exaggerate moves. Watch whether last week’s risk-off tone deepens or stabilizes as we approach month-end.

Sparks of Market Wisdom

Periods of volatility after strong rallies are normal and healthy. Today’s environment reinforces timeless principles:

  • Stay invested when headlines turn noisy.
  • Stay diversified as leadership rotates.
  • Stay disciplined by following your long-term plan rather than short-term emotions.

Quote of the Week

“It's never about the outcome. It's always about the day.” — Shane Parrish

Happy Thanksgiving!

Invest Well, Be Well.

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