Weekly Market Sparks | November 17, 2025

Talking Points for The Week That Was and The Week Ahead

Executive Summary Sparks

  • Last Week: Markets closed mixed as investors rotated out of AI and growth stocks. Despite volatility, the S&P 500 eked out a small weekly gain and is now up ~2.4% during the 43-day government shutdown, marking the 7th straight shutdown with positive S&P returns.
  • The Week Ahead: Key reports return as government operations resume, including Industrial Production (Tues)Housing Starts (Weds)Jobless Claims (Thurs), and Flash PMIs & Michigan Sentiment (Fri).
  • Market Wisdom: When leadership rotates and headlines turn noisy, disciplined investors lean on process—not predictions.

Sparks from the Week That Was

Market Performance

U.S. equities ended mixed as sector leadership shifted sharply. The Dow and S&P 500 finished slightly higher, while the Nasdaq, S&P MidCap 400, and Russell 2000 declined.
The S&P 500’s total return last week hovered near flat, while the index has delivered a healthy gain over the past 12 months.
Rotation was the theme: energy and healthcare rallied, while technology and communication services—the 2025 leaders—pulled back.

Economic Data

With the longest government shutdown in history now over, missing October data won’t be published. Earnings carried the load, and they impressed:

  • Q3 earnings are on pace for +14% Y/Y, more than double early-season expectations.
  • S&P 500 earnings per share pushed above $300, a new high.

Shutdown-related noise continues to cloud labor and inflation reads, keeping the Fed in Powell’s “fog.”

Sentiment & Confidence

Consumers remain cautious. Early November Michigan sentiment hit a record low, and corporate layoff announcements accelerated. Investors are wrestling with stretched valuations in mega-cap tech after a 55% Nasdaq rally from April lows.

Bond & Credit Markets

Treasury yields drifted higher with the 10-year near 4.1%, keeping pressure on rate-sensitive assets. Munis outperformed with strong post-shutdown demand for new issuance. Credit spreads remain broadly stable despite isolated stress in autos and CRE.

Other Noteworthy Sparks

While markets worry about an AI bubble, fundamentals for long-term AI investment remain intact—but expectations had simply gotten ahead of themselves. A healthy reset is normal.

Sparks for the Week Ahead

  • Economic Data: After weeks of delays, investors will finally see Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Jobless Claims, Flash PMIs, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
  • Fed & Policy: December rate-cut odds have fallen below 50% as Fed officials lean hawkish. A weakening labor market could shift that narrative quickly.
  • Markets & Earnings: Watch whether rotation into value, healthcare, and energy persists—and whether dip-buyers stabilize tech after recent selling.

Sparks of Market Wisdom

Market leadership always changes before it feels comfortable. Instead of chasing what just worked—or fleeing what just fell—investors benefit most from staying invested, staying diversified, and staying disciplined. Process beats prediction, especially when volatility rises.

Quote of the Week

“You will never be perfect, but you can always be better.” — Warren Buffett

Invest Well, Be Well.

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