Weekly Market Sparks | November 10, 2025

Rusty Vanneman

— 2 min read

Talking Points for The Week That Was and The Week Ahead

Executive Summary Sparks

  • Last Week: The S&P 500 fell for a second consecutive week. So fair, it is the weakest start to November since 2008. Technology and growth stocks led declines amid renewed scrutiny of AI valuations and soft consumer sentiment.
  • The Week Ahead: Inflation data will dominate with CPI and PPI releases Thursday and Friday, alongside small business and retail updates. These will test expectations for another Fed rate cut in December.
  • Market Wisdom: When fear is high and sentiment is low, patient investors win. Staying invested, diversified, and disciplined remains the surest path through uncertainty.

Sparks from the Week That Was

  • Market Performance: U.S. equities ended lower across major indexes, with the Nasdaq Composite down nearly 3%—its steepest weekly drop since April—as profit-taking hit the “AI leaders.” The S&P 500 is now off roughly 2% from its record high on October 28 but still up double digits year-to-date (+11% total return over the past 12 months).
  • Economic Data: ADP reported +42,000 new private-sector jobs in October, but all growth came from large firms (+74,000) while small and medium-sized businesses shed jobs (-32,000 combined). This imbalance highlights slowing breadth in the labor market. Meanwhile, Q3 household debt jumped +$197 billion to a record $18.6 trillion, up 30% since 2020.
  • Sentiment & Confidence: Consumer sentiment fell sharply again as the University of Michigan Index dropped to 50.3, near its lowest level in history. Despite a solid job market, Americans feel the sting of higher prices and political uncertainty.
  • Bond & Credit Markets: Treasuries rallied modestly, with the 10-year yield easing to around 4.1%, as weaker hiring and softer sentiment boosted hopes for further rate cuts. Credit spreads widened slightly on renewed risk aversion.
  • Sector/Style Sparks: Value outperformed growth by nearly 300 basis points, which was the widest weekly spread since February. This was driven by defensive strength in utilities and health care and weakness in high-valuation tech.
  • Other Noteworthy Sparks: ETF flows continue to shatter records with over $1 trillion so far this year proving investors’ continued preference for diversified, transparent, and disciplined vehicles even in choppy markets.

Sparks for the Week Ahead

  • Economic Data: Watch for NFIB Small Business Optimism (Tuesday) and Headline & Core CPI (Thursday), followed by PPI (Friday). Inflation trends will shape expectations for the Fed’s December meeting.
  • Fed & Policy: Fed speakers will likely emphasize patience as inflation remains sticky but growth cools. Any signs of disinflation could reinforce the “soft landing” narrative.
  • Markets & Earnings: Investors will eye retail earnings and early holiday-spending forecasts for clues on consumer resilience. With large-cap valuations stretched, watch for rotation toward small caps and international equities.

Sparks of Market Wisdom

Even in the “worst November start since 2008,” markets often reward those who stay the course. Diversification cushions the downside; discipline ensures you stay long enough to see the recovery.

Quote of the Week

“You win in the dark, when everyone else is partying or sleeping.”
— Steve Wozniak (via Shane Parrish)

Invest Well, Be Well.
Rusty Vanneman | rustysbridge.com
Listen to my podcast: Invest Well, Be Well

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