Weekly Market Sparks – August 11th, 2025

Rusty Vanneman

— 1 min read

Talking Points for The Week That Was and the Week Ahead
“In the end, our life is ultimately a collection of what we pay attention to.” — William James

  • Nasdaq Hits All-Time High – Tech led the charge, with Apple soaring +13% after pledging $100B for U.S. manufacturing. The S&P 500 gained over +2%, small caps rebounded, and even lagging midcaps ended the week in the green.
  • Earnings Blowout – 82% of S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates, the most since Q4 2021, with an average beat of 8.5%. Q2 earnings growth now expected at +9.7% vs. +3.8% at the quarter’s start.
  • Tariffs in Full Swing – New U.S. tariffs up to 50% took effect August 7. Markets absorbed the shock thanks to exemptions (notably for U.S.-made semiconductors) and pre-deal trade agreements.
  • Fed Cut Odds Surge – Market-implied odds of a September Fed rate cut hit 90%, the highest since late 2023. The 10-year yield closed just under 4.3%, still below last month’s 4.5% peak.
  • Labor Market Cracks – Initial jobless claims rose to 226K, continuing claims hit a near four-year high at 1.97M. Productivity rose +2.4% annualized, helping offset wage pressures.
  • Services Mixed – ISM Services barely in expansion (50.1%), while S&P’s Services PMI was much stronger at 55.7%.
  • Household Debt Record – Q2 debt climbed $185B to a record $18.4 trillion. Delinquencies are starting to tick up—the highest since pre-COVID.
  • Consumer Credit Growth – June saw +$7.4B in borrowing, indicating consumers remain active despite higher rates.
  • Diversification Reminder – U.S. stocks remain dominant, but international valuations and certain commodities look historically attractive relative to U.S. large caps. Staying diversified cushions against sector and country-specific shocks.
  • Upcoming Data to Watch – CPI (Tuesday), PPI (Thursday), Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Friday) could move Fed expectations and market sentiment.

Why It Matters for Investors

  • The rally reminds us that missing just a few big up days can significantly impact long-term returns—stay invested.
  • Sector leadership rotates—tech is hot now, but history shows today’s leaders aren’t always tomorrow’s winners—stay diversified.
  • Noise around tariffs, rates, and politics will only grow from here—stick to your long-term plan—stay disciplined.

Invest Well, Be Well

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