Weekly Market Sparks 9/29/25

Rusty Vanneman

— 2 min read
Share

Talking Points for the Week That Was and For the Week Ahead

Executive Summary Sparks

  • Last Week: Stocks pulled back as Fed officials signaled caution on rate cuts. The Nasdaq fell the most (-0.7%) while the Russell 2000 saw its first weekly loss since early August. Energy was the standout sector, boosted by higher oil prices.
  • The Week Ahead: The October jobs report (Oct 3) and looming government shutdown risk will likely dominate headlines. Earnings season is also just around the corner.
  • Market Wisdom: Market gains rarely move in a straight line. Volatility is normal and often healthy. The key is to stay invested, diversified, and disciplined.

Sparks from the Week That Was

  • Market Performance: The S&P 500 fell modestly while the Nasdaq (-0.7%) led declines. The Dow held near flat. Energy stocks were the only sector in positive territory, lifted by stronger oil prices. The S&P 500 total return is now up roughly +22% over the last 12 months, but more than +30% since April without a meaningful pullback. This stretches valuations.
  • Economic Data: August core PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) rose +0.2% month-over-month and +2.9% year-over-year, steady with July. Personal spending jumped +0.6% and income +0.4%, both stronger than expected. Final Q2 GDP was revised sharply higher to +3.8%, driven by robust consumer spending (+2.5%).
  • Housing Market: New home sales surged +20% to an annualized 800,000 units, the highest since Jan 2022. Existing home sales held steady at 4 million. Prices remain resilient, with the median existing home price up +2% y/y.
  • Bond & Credit Markets: Treasury yields rose at the front end of the curve as investors priced in fewer near-term rate cuts. The 10-year yield finished the week near 4.25%. Credit spreads stayed contained.
  • Other Sparks: Fed Chair Powell noted “equity prices are fairly highly valued” and flagged both inflation and labor risks. Political risk looms with a potential government shutdown if no budget is passed by Oct 1.

Sparks for the Week Ahead

  • Economic Data: The September non-farm payrolls report (Oct 3) will be closely watched for signs of labor market strength. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%. Economists are expecting modest job growth with estimates grouping around 50k new jobs (compared to 22k last month).
  • Fed & Policy: Fed officials are in a blackout period ahead of the Oct 30 FOMC meeting, but recent comments suggest caution on easing.
  • Markets & Earnings: October has historically been volatile. With Q3 earnings season approaching, investors will be watching guidance closely, especially given elevated valuations.

Sparks of Market Wisdom

Markets often look strongest just before a bout of turbulence. With stocks up more than 30% since April and October’s reputation for volatility, a pullback wouldn’t be surprising. For long-term investors, though, the playbook doesn’t change:

  • Stay invested through the noise.
  • Stay diversified to balance risks.
  • Stay disciplined by following your plan, not the headlines.

Quote of the Week

“If you’re comfortable with your inner scorecard, I think you’re going to have a pretty happy life. The people who strive too much for the outer scorecard sometimes find that it’s a little hollow when they get all through.” — Warren Buffett

Invest Well, Be Well.
Rusty Vanneman | rustysbridge.com
Listen to my new podcast: Invest Well, Be Well - this one is loaded with words of wisdom from a man who has seen and accomplished a few things!

Read more